Convergence of the first-order non-constant dynamic linear model and forecast stability
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper considers the first-order non-constant dynamic linear model (DLM). Analytical results are derived for the limiting behaviour of constant and non-constant DLMs and an alternative is proposed to variance discounting for the specification of the evolution variance. The term ”forecast stability” is introduced to provide an answer to the question ”at what point in time, should forecasts be considered?” Our method proposes that predictions should be considered after the time that the forecast variance gets close to its limiting value.
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